The AI capability overhang explained: why the bottleneck isn't technology—it's humans not knowing how to use it. And why that's your opportunity.
OpenAI posted something that should have made headlines:
There is a capability overhang today—gaps between model capabilities and how people actually use them—so progress toward AGI in 2026 will depend as much on helping people use AI well as on advances in frontier models.
— OpenAI (@OpenAI) December 23, 2025
Read that again. OpenAI, the company building the most advanced AI on the planet, is saying that the bottleneck isn't the technology. It's us. It's humans not knowing how to use what already exists.
It's us fleshy humans that are the block!
Microsoft's CTO Kevin Scott said the same thing. He told AI startup founders they're sitting on a "gigantic capability overhang." Current AI systems can do far more than most apps built on top of them. His advice? Stop waiting for better models and start building.
This is the opportunity.
The AI is ready. The humans aren't. And someone needs to bridge that gap.
Hint: it's you.
Let's look at what's actually happening in the market right now. Let's get nerdy.
83% of companies say AI is a priority. But only 14% have a formal AI training policy in place. And just 8% have a skills development programme for roles impacted by AI.
The result? 82% of employees feel their organisations don't provide adequate AI training. So 59% are going out and pursuing it on their own.
Meanwhile, AI course enrolments on Udemy have surged fivefold in the past year, now over 11 million globally. Every minute, five to eight people sign up for an AI course on the platform.
This is a GAP. A big gap that companies are throwing money at to bridge.
Corporate AI training spend hit $8.9 billion globally in 2024. That's up 78% year on year.
The global corporate training market overall? $361.5 billion in 2023, projected to hit $805.6 billion by 2035.
The demand is real. The money is flowing. But there's a bit of a problem. For them. Not us…
Most of this money is being spent badly.
LinkedIn's 2025 Workplace Learning Report found that 80% of L&D professionals view AI as important to their learning strategies. But only 25% actually factor it into what they do on a regular basis. Companies know they need this. They just don't know how to deliver it.
Sucks for them. Great for us!
Think back to the Deloitte story. If one of the biggest consulting firms in the world can't train their staff on basic AI hygiene, imagine what's happening inside every other company… yeah…
OK so the question isn't really whether demand exists. It clearly does. Me telling you that AI is "sorta a big deal" is pointless.
The question is: can you carve out your specific corner of it?
Because "AI training" is too broad. The market doesn't need another generic ChatGPT tutorial. What it needs are people who can translate AI into the specific language of specific industries.
Here are some of my students and the areas they've carved out workshop businesses in:
It can be industries, demographics, organisations, geographies or many other "niches" or combos of. The key is working this out for you specifically.
I can't emphasise this enough. You've probably heard me go on about this before. And I won't stop. Sorry.
We need translators. Not more technicians.
Think back to the charity story from Lesson 1. The (dual!) PhD talked about neural networks and caused confusion. I asked if they could use WhatsApp. That reframe unlocked everything. And got people actually using AI.
That's the skill that's worth money. Not knowing the most. Being able to translate why normal people should give a damn.
The idea is you don't know what AI is good for or bad for inside your job or your industry. Nobody knows. I think a lot of people think there's a secret instruction manual out there. There is not.
— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) March 18, 2025
There's no manual. Which means the person who figures out how AI applies to a specific industry, and can explain it in that industry's language, becomes incredibly valuable. A linchpin. Or a Key Person of Influence in Daniel Priestley language.
Same technology. Different translations.
(In a later lesson, I'll give you an Industry Translator tool that helps you create these analogies for your specific audience.)
Your task right now though is to work out how you can combine your AI skills and your industry background. This intersection is where you're going to make good money.
Picture two overlapping circles:
Your workshop lives in the overlap. That's your unique value. And you don't need to be world-class in either circle. Just competent in both.
Use the tool below to identify your ideal workshop niche. Answer the questions and you'll get:
Preparing interactive experience
Learn how to build a profitable AI workshop business. I'll show you exactly how to get started — even without a PhD or TED Talk speaking skills.
Now you've identified your niche. In the next lesson, I'll give you the exact structure for a 1-hour workshop →
Continue to Lesson 3